Predicting The Unpredictable
Bugged by the bugging (non-)story and with little other news of interest, now is the time to reiterate my unequivocal prediction that Hillary Clinton will secure the Democratic presidential nomination and begin next year in the White House.
With the polls showing a dead heat between her and Barack Obama this is as bold a forecast as when I first made it (in the immediate aftermath of Obama's decisive victory in the Iowa caucuses). I have three reasons for sticking to my guns:
1) On the evidence of the New Hampshire result, opinion polls may be understating the level of support for Senator Clinton.
2) While the record turnout seen in the Democratic primaries has had no clear beneficiary so far, my guess is that with Obama having attracted all the momentum this year and closed what was once an unassailable poll lead for Clinton, the fear of losing among Clinton supporters will prove a more powerful emotion than the hope of winning in the other camp.
3) The presidential primaries represent a gruelling contest for the highest political office in America. They will be won by the best politician - defined as cynically as you like - available to the country at the time. That's Clinton.
It's the last point which lay behind my initial call, and while I'd be happy to be proved wrong I don't think Obama's time has come just yet.
1 comment:
Obama's time may have come, it would seem that there are many voters who do not think Billary can win in November. Obama is promising more give aways than Billary, He is the hero of liberals. Momentum is on his side.He is raising more money. He has the hammer. If the Clinton's put Bill back out in front in this campaign she will lose and Bill can't keep his mouth shut. Obama is becoming a religious experience for many godless democrats.
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